Under the column, Elections are lost by the governing party, not won by the opposition...
What is surprising in this election hasn't been the sudden and unexpected rise fo Steven Harper, or the dithering fall of Paul Martin's Liberals, but more... Why has it taken this long?
If this election turns into a win (either a minority or a majority) for the conservatives, it will largely be due to two things. After wresting control from Jean Chretien, who left him the present of the adscam, Martin had to silence those who weren't onside with his take-over in the Libs. Martin needed to silence them.
So to do so... he had two choices,
The first, in true Machievellian politics, he needed to Eliminate the Chretien loyalists. While Sheila Copps and Warren Kinsella certainly have been the most vocal opponents of Martin from the Liberal camp, there are others. "The Mole" for instance...
Tony Valeri and others overran Copps, Kinsella went into private practice and started playing music again... but they didn't roll over. Martin is now fighting a two front war. A guerilla war within and an election without. Fighting a two front war isn't a recipie for success.
The second, and more difficult option would see Martin mend the fences. It would have been a tough pill to swallow, but it may have smoothed over the rough patches.
Martin chose option one... and now he looks like George Bush in every Democrat's wetdream. He's surrounded himself with a cabal of insiders and bought men, sycophants, who know how to fight a in-house turf war, but don't realize what plays with the masses. He looks like someone who feels entitled to be Prime Minister, not someone who believe's he's worthy of public trust. Someone who lives in the psycological shadow of his father, and is not his own man. Who provided us with that image... Copps, Kinsella et al.. by via of Martin's acrimonous dumping of them...
Add to that, the sheer frat-houseness of the Liberal Campaign... the beer and popcorn stunt, the sheer despiration in the tone of the Liberal Attack ads, the supposed bribing of an NDP candidate...
This last issue aside, I have to ask, why has it taken this long, and why are these the issues that are turning people away from the Liberal banner?